Yellen Bet on Pulling Workers Back to Labor Force Is Paying Off
Although unemployment in the United States has fallen in recent years, Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen, stuck at a glacial pace of tightening policies justified with a powerful message: there were still millions of potential workers to take advantage of Margins of the labor market.
While the US salary report in June the central bank keeps on track to raise rates again this year and begin to unlock its balance of $ 4.5 trillion, it also suggests that the Yellen decision to keep rates Of interest lower than the critical college favorite and helped treat some damage caused by the great recession.
Its goal was to foster a sustained recovery that would help bring Americans who had spilled their jobs into employment.
It was a gamble. If the workers did not return, the strategy could stimulate a rigid labor market that has sent wages and inflation too fast. This could have forced the Fed to raise the most aggressive rates and jeopardize the recovery.
But go back they have. The flow of people who have moved from outside the workforce directly into employment rose in June to $ 4.7 million, its highest level in records dating back to 1990.
Labor force participation has stabilized after a long decline, and the proportion of the working population continues to increase moderately. And as the hidden labor market is absorbed for a long time, it could help keep modest wage increases and inflation under control.
The increase in the workforce from outside the workforce “reflects the slowdown in the workforce slowdown,” said Tom Simons, an economist at Jefferies LLC in New York. “For the Fed, it’s very encouraging and it’s part of the story they’re going to follow with their standardization plan.”
Yellen, who argued that the sharp contraction in employment will lead to higher price and wage pressures over time, may explain his view of the labor market when a semiannual testimony to Congress is presented this month.
She speaks to the House Financial Services Committee on July 12 and the Senate Banking Committee on July 13.
He said that in October 2016 that “a rigid labor market could attract potential workers who otherwise sit on the bench,” and noted that it was possible that “strong economic conditions may partially reverse the damage caused by The offer after it was carried out. ”
More recently, she and her colleagues said that they were in full employment, and faced down to suggest that the slack has been absorbed but has never declared total victory.
She said in January that the labor market was “pretty close” to the commission’s top job target, for example, and that the cyclical component of declining participation had “largely” disappeared.
The latest data could justify the notion that potential workers were likely to remain on the sidelines.
The Fed has raised the rate slowly, and the effect on the economy was limited because the financial conditions remain easy. In this context, employers continue to contract quickly, with 222,000 new workers last month.
“Labor market and participation rates respond to Fed policy and it is for the economy,” said Michael Gapen, an economist at Barclays Plc in New York.
It seems that they have finally scraped the bottom with respect to those who are actively registered for employment and are therefore classified as unemployed.
The unemployment rate was 4.4 percent in June, compared with a 16-year threshold of 4.3 percent the previous month, and the proportion of people moving from unemployment to work has declined.
As it happened, employers have begun to exploit marginalized groups of workers. The change has stabilized – and now to a little increase – the participation rate in the workforce, which measures the percentage of the population that works or seeks employment.
This is a particularly sweet achievement for the Fed as it faces demographic trends, which should weigh down rates.
The flattening is “consistent with a global vision of improving conditions in the labor market,” the Fed said in its report on monetary policy to Congress, released Friday in Washington.